Quantifying Risk in Waterfall Methodology: Case Study at Aplikasi Super
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37385/msej.v5i2.5664Keywords:
Waterfall Methodology, Risk Management, Sequential Decision Process, Dynamic ProgrammingAbstract
In this paper, we presented a straightforward mathematical model based on Dynamic Programming to answer one of the biggest concern in Waterfall methodology, namely: quantifying risk. Our approach essentially resembles Elmaghraby (2005), but we have more stages and use uniform distributions. With this approach, we can show and quantify the risk in Waterfall methodology so that decision maker can understand the implication of his decision. Dynamic Programming solution also provides a blue print for adjusting decision if the early (previous) stage does not go as planned. A case study at Aplikasi Super with some sensitivity analysis is provided as a numerical illustration.
References
Felix Torres and Herbert D. Benington, presentation at Navy Mathematical Computing Advisory Panel, Symposium on advanced programming methods for digital computers, Office of Naval Research, Dept. of the Navy, Washington, D.C., 28 – 29 June 1956. Reprinted with foreword in H. D. Benington (1983), "Production of Large Computer Programs", Annals of the History of Computing, Vol. 5, No. 4, October 1983, pp. 350 – 361. https://doi.org/10.1109/MAHC.1983.10102.
Hall, Philip (1927), "The Distribution of Means for Samples of Size N Drawn from a Population in which the Variate Takes Values Between 0 and 1, All Such Values Being Equally Probable", Biometrika, Vol. 19, No. 3/4., pp. 240 – 245. https://doi.org/10.2307/2331961.
Irwin, J.O. (1927), "On the Frequency Distribution of the Means of Samples from a Population Having any Law of Frequency with Finite Moments, with Special Reference to Pearson's Type II", Biometrika, Vol. 19, No. 3/4., pp. 225 – 239. https://doi.org/10.2307/2331960.
Olds, E. G. (1952), “A Note on the Convolution of Uniform Distributions”, The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 23(2), pp. 282 – 285. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2236455.
Wagner, H. M., & Whitin, T. M. (1958), “Dynamic Version of the Economic Lot Size Model”, Management Science, 5(1), pp. 89 – 96. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.5.1.89.
Royce, Winston (1970), "Managing the Development of Large Software Systems", Proceedings of IEEE WESCON, 26 (August), pp. 1 – 9. Republish in: Proceedings of the 9th international conference on Software Engineering, IEEE Computer Society Press, Washington, DC, USA (1987), pp. 328 – 338.
Brooks, Frederick P. (1975), The Mythical Man-Month: Essays on Software Engineering, Reading, Mass., Addison-Wesley Pub. Co.
Thomas E Bell and Thomas A Thayer (1976), “Software Requirements: Are They Really a Problem?”, in Proceedings of the 2nd international conference on Software engineering (ICSE ‘76), IEEE Computer Society Press, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 61 – 68.
Sei Ueda, Sohei Okada, Hajime Sato, & Kuno Shimizu (1994), “Distribution of the Sum of Uniform Random Variables with Different Ranges", SUT Journal of Mathematics, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 65 – 73.
Elmaghraby, Salah. (2005), “On the Fallacy of Averages in Project Risk Management”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol 165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2004.04.003.
Killmann, Frank and von Collani, Elart (2001), “A Note on the Convolution of the Uniform and Related Distributions and Their Use in Quality Control”, Economic Quality Control, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 17 – 41. https://doi.org/10.1515/EQC.2001.17.
Van Casteren, Wilfred. (2017). The Waterfall Model and the Agile Methodologies : A comparison by project characteristics. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.36825.72805.
Hillier, F. S., & Lieberman, G. J. (2021), Introduction to operations research, 11th Ed, New York: McGraw-Hill.
Theo Thesing, Carsten Feldmann, Martin Burchardt (2021), “Agile versus Waterfall Project Management: Decision Model for Selecting the Appropriate Approach to a Project”, Procedia Computer Science, Volume 181, pp. 746 – 756. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2021.01.227.
Chandran, K., & Das Aundhe, M. (2022), “Agile or Waterfall Development: The Clementon Company Dilemma”, Journal of Information Technology Teaching Cases, Vol. 12 No. 1, pp. 8 – 15. https://doi.org/10.1177/2043886919870544.
Template
