Quantifying Risk in Waterfall Methodology: Case Study at Aplikasi Super

Authors

  • Indriati Njoto Bisono Universitas Kristen Petra
  • Vincent Arvin Aplikasi Super, Nusantara Technology, Surabaya
  • Hanijanto Soewandi MicroStrategy, Tysons Corner, VA, USA

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37385/msej.v5i2.5664

Keywords:

Waterfall Methodology, Risk Management, Sequential Decision Process, Dynamic Programming

Abstract

In this paper, we presented a straightforward mathematical model based on Dynamic Programming to answer one of the biggest concern in Waterfall methodology, namely: quantifying risk. Our approach essentially resembles Elmaghraby (2005), but we have more stages and use uniform distributions. With this approach, we can show and quantify the risk in Waterfall methodology so that decision maker can understand the implication of his decision. Dynamic Programming solution also provides a blue print for adjusting decision if the early (previous) stage does not go as planned. A case study at Aplikasi Super with some sensitivity analysis is provided as a numerical illustration.

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Published

2024-07-27

How to Cite

Bisono, I. N., Arvin, V. ., & Soewandi, H. (2024). Quantifying Risk in Waterfall Methodology: Case Study at Aplikasi Super. Management Studies and Entrepreneurship Journal (MSEJ), 5(2), 8727–8737. https://doi.org/10.37385/msej.v5i2.5664